Post by djherbie on Sept 28, 2012 12:22:57 GMT -5
...and decided to do an analysis of the teams generally thought to be contenders (BOS, MIA, CHI, IND, BRK, NY, IND, LAL, LAC, SA, OKC, MEM, DEN) using the #NBARANK rankings as my data. What I wanted to see was, as you aggregated the rankings for players 1-10 on a given team, how did the relative strengths of those teams stack up. Just using the raw ranks, the team rankings shook out this way:
Best Player; 1. MIA, 2. OKC, 3. LAL, 12. IND
Top 3 Players; 1. LAL, 2. MIA, 3. OKC, 12. LAC
Starting 5; 1. MEM, 2. OKC, 3. CHI, 12. SAS
Top 8 Players; 1. LAC, 2. SA, 3. NY, 12. IND
Top 10 Players; 1. SA, 2. NY, 3. MIA, 12. LAL
So, just using raw data, some interesting observations there:
Memphis has the deepest all-around starting 5
After the top 4 players, Lakers are really really thin
Miami is surprisingly deep at the end of their bench
OKC is pretty weak after their top 6 players
San Antonio and to a lesser extent NYK are really deep teams
Didn't stop there though that because that simple analysis doesn't account for the fact that the top 3 guys have a bigger impact than your 8-10 guys and that there is a benefit to continuity/experience and yes coaching. So, I weighted the ranks of the players (Players 1-3 were 3X, Players 4-7 were 2X and Players 8-10 were 1X) and gave teams with great coaches a 20pt bump over teams with bad coaches (and 10pt over teams with average coaches) and teams with experience playing together a 20pt bump over teams that have had a lot of roster turnover.
Plotted the results of that math on a graph and based on the lines in the graph some things that shouldn't be a surprise:
All told, Miami and OKC look like the most consistently strong teams.
The Lakers are really thin....an injury to one of their top 4 guys will absolutely destroy them
Some things that might be surprising are:
After Miami and OKC, the C's look like the next most consistently strong team, especially if players 6-8 exceed expectations a bit.
Denver might be the surprise contender of the year; through their top 5 players, they are right in the thick of it....they tail off a bit once you get to players 6-8, but then finish strong. That tells me that they can withstand an injury or two and if they get a surprise breakout player, they'll be really dangerous.
Brooklyn, NY, and Indiana are pretty overrated.
Of course, all of this rests on the relevance of the #NBARANK rankings....frankly, I think that Garnett and Pierce were each about 4-6 spots too low. Bosh being ahead of KG is particularly criminal.
Best Player; 1. MIA, 2. OKC, 3. LAL, 12. IND
Top 3 Players; 1. LAL, 2. MIA, 3. OKC, 12. LAC
Starting 5; 1. MEM, 2. OKC, 3. CHI, 12. SAS
Top 8 Players; 1. LAC, 2. SA, 3. NY, 12. IND
Top 10 Players; 1. SA, 2. NY, 3. MIA, 12. LAL
So, just using raw data, some interesting observations there:
Memphis has the deepest all-around starting 5
After the top 4 players, Lakers are really really thin
Miami is surprisingly deep at the end of their bench
OKC is pretty weak after their top 6 players
San Antonio and to a lesser extent NYK are really deep teams
Didn't stop there though that because that simple analysis doesn't account for the fact that the top 3 guys have a bigger impact than your 8-10 guys and that there is a benefit to continuity/experience and yes coaching. So, I weighted the ranks of the players (Players 1-3 were 3X, Players 4-7 were 2X and Players 8-10 were 1X) and gave teams with great coaches a 20pt bump over teams with bad coaches (and 10pt over teams with average coaches) and teams with experience playing together a 20pt bump over teams that have had a lot of roster turnover.
Plotted the results of that math on a graph and based on the lines in the graph some things that shouldn't be a surprise:
All told, Miami and OKC look like the most consistently strong teams.
The Lakers are really thin....an injury to one of their top 4 guys will absolutely destroy them
Some things that might be surprising are:
After Miami and OKC, the C's look like the next most consistently strong team, especially if players 6-8 exceed expectations a bit.
Denver might be the surprise contender of the year; through their top 5 players, they are right in the thick of it....they tail off a bit once you get to players 6-8, but then finish strong. That tells me that they can withstand an injury or two and if they get a surprise breakout player, they'll be really dangerous.
Brooklyn, NY, and Indiana are pretty overrated.
Of course, all of this rests on the relevance of the #NBARANK rankings....frankly, I think that Garnett and Pierce were each about 4-6 spots too low. Bosh being ahead of KG is particularly criminal.